The Staggers Blog, the New Statesman rolling blog, is not one that I normally read - and this is, I believe, the first time that I have linked to it. Discussing AV and the Australian result, it states:
"Comparing the frequency of hung parliaments in the past overlooks the role of the Liberal Democrats in the UK, who would be likely to benefit hugely from second preference votes under AV. If the system were to end up creating a three party system, it could indeed make hung parliaments more likely."
The continual repetition of this two/three party system, comprising the Lib/Lab/Con elements, I find increasingly annoying. Were AV to be introduced - far from certain, based on recent opinion polls - why should it be the LibDems who "would be likely to benefit hugely from second preference votes"?
Is it not just as feasible to speculate - which is all the the above statement is - that because people are fed up with the present political elite that they may just put what the media love to term 'minor parties' as their second preference?
Fans of AV should remember that one doesn't always get what one expects!