Monday, 25 October 2010

And Therein Lies A Fault With Opinion Polls - Maybe, Not So?

News of an opinion poll and a 'snap' poll emerge this evening. 

According to Tweetminster: Populus/Times: LAB 38% (+1), CON 37% (-2), LDEM 15% (+1).

According to Sam Coates on Twitter: Populus poll for The Times: Labour 38 (+1%), C 37% (-2%) LDem 15%(+1). First time Labour in the lead in a Populus poll since Nov 2007.

According to House of Twits:  Should Nadine Dorries be censured for making misleading statements on her blog? Result: Yes: 26; No: 4; Undecided: 1.

And the burning question is that of those surveyed, how many actually know the arguments for and against the policies of the Conservatives and Labour? How many believe Dorries has 'done wrong' when compared with the 'wrongdoing' of Kerry McCarthy?

That is not to decry the pollsters nor the intellectual level of those surveyed. It is, however, to decry the lack of our political elite and the media to explain the relevant, true and 'unspun' facts to the electorate.

Just saying.....................


Anonymous said...

perhaps someone can enlighten me with regards to the polls. I got the following from

"There was also a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday. The quoted shares of the vote in the paper are CON 35%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%… but this implies others at 18% which would be a sharp contrast with other pollsters. In the past the Mail on Sunday have published figures from BPIX that weren’t repercentaged to exclude won’t votes, so this could be the case here, meaning all three parties are actually higher. BPIX don’t publish tables so we’ll never know."

I don't quite understand what I am reading when it talks about "repercentaged to exclude won’t votes". What does "won't vote" mean? Is it abstain, or won't vote for the main options? And if so, does it mean that poll respondents registering interest in fringe parties are counted as such and then discounted?

Witterings From Witney said...

Good pointm A. Perhaps we need to add pollsters into the last para of my post?

Anonymous said...

I reckon.